BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bell's Vireo In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-45%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bell's Vireo in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Bell's Vireo In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.13
20270.060.000.13
20280.060.000.13
20290.060.000.13
20300.060.000.13

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA52016
BereaNEBRASKA21983
AmherstCOLORADO12009
FlaglerCOLORADO12007
PlymellKANSAS12017
DaltonNEBRASKA12022
BenkelmanNEBRASKA12025
CrawfordNEBRASKA12012
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA12025
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA12018
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO12021
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO12014
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA12015
RankinTEXAS12024
PostTEXAS12019
PlainsTEXAS12015
StilesTEXAS12023
MentoneTEXAS12011
DoughertyTEXAS12018
SaragosaTEXAS12022
Kermit 2TEXAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.