BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 1.9–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 1.9–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.92.711
20266.72.511
20276.62.311
20286.42.111
20296.21.910

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON762024
GlasgowOREGON552024
CoquilleOREGON532024
AdairOREGON512024
WedderburnOREGON452024
RaymondWASHINGTON452021
SvensenOREGON441992
Warm BeachWASHINGTON442017
Pe EllWASHINGTON412023
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA352024
CarnationWASHINGTON312024
CamasWASHINGTON292009
SalemOREGON282024
South ElmaWASHINGTON282024
MukilteoWASHINGTON282024
CougarWASHINGTON272023
MontesandWASHINGTON272024
CanbyOREGON242024
IssaquahWASHINGTON231987
Raymond 2WASHINGTON232024
WinberryOREGON212023
McminnvilleOREGON212024
Port AngelesWASHINGTON202024
Bay ViewWASHINGTON202017
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON202024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.