BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 8.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 1.9–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 8.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 1.9–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.82.611
20276.62.411
20286.52.211
20296.32.110
20306.11.910

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WedderburnOREGON652025
AdairOREGON612025
ElktonOREGON472025
RaymondWASHINGTON452021
SvensenOREGON441992
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON442025
Warm BeachWASHINGTON442017
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA362025
McminnvilleOREGON322025
SalemOREGON302025
CamasWASHINGTON292009
South ElmaWASHINGTON282024
CougarWASHINGTON272023
MontesandWASHINGTON272024
CoquilleOREGON252025
GlasgowOREGON242025
IssaquahWASHINGTON231987
Raymond 2WASHINGTON232024
WinberryOREGON212023
Bay ViewWASHINGTON202017
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON202024
HauserOREGON171985
Port AngelesWASHINGTON172025
Pe EllWASHINGTON172025
Hazel CampOREGON162022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.