BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-31%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±174.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0030
20260.000.0030
20270.000.0030
20280.000.0030
20290.000.0030

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ProgresoTEXAS2352011
San YgnacioTEXAS491985
HondoTEXAS452024
KingsvilleTEXAS122024
George WestTEXAS122024
CatarinaTEXAS62010
MillettTEXAS62012
La PryorTEXAS52017
El SauzTEXAS51997
SejitaTEXAS42024
Mirando CityTEXAS32024
El IndioTEXAS32007
Catarina 2TEXAS32017
DilleyTEXAS32024
Millett 2TEXAS32024
Agua NuevaTEXAS21999
ZapataTEXAS21987
GuerraTEXAS22013
Pedro CreekTEXAS22005
HeidelbergTEXAS22023
RachalTEXAS12019
RandadoTEXAS12024
EncinalTEXAS12010
RaymondvilleTEXAS12024
Encinal 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.