BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+68%Since 1969
53Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Barn Swallow has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+104%Change by 2029
3.7Projected 2029 index
0.00–1195% range
±128.9%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.80.0011
20263.70.0011
20273.70.0011
20283.70.0011
20293.70.0011

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert.
MesillaNEW-MEXICO1122000
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO381977
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO172024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO162019
MarathonTEXAS122023
GirvinTEXAS102017
Ft. DavisTEXAS72023
Sierra BlancTEXAS62024
GageNEW-MEXICO52024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO52024
ComstockTEXAS52023
ShafterTEXAS51984
Ft. StocktonTEXAS52024
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO42023
PinonNEW-MEXICO42016
AltudaTEXAS42021
Devils R CynTEXAS42017
MarfaTEXAS42024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS42023
RoswellNEW-MEXICO32019
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO32014
OzonaTEXAS31997
Bear MtnTEXAS32017
ToyahvaleTEXAS32019
DemingNEW-MEXICO21975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.