BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.60.0011
20273.60.0011
20283.60.0011
20293.50.0011
20303.50.0011

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MesillaNEW-MEXICO1122000
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO381977
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO162019
GirvinTEXAS102017
GageNEW-MEXICO82025
MarathonTEXAS82025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO72025
Ft. DavisTEXAS72023
Red RockNEW-MEXICO62025
Sierra BlancTEXAS62025
ShafterTEXAS51984
Casa PiedraTEXAS52025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO42025
PinonNEW-MEXICO42016
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO42025
AltudaTEXAS42021
Devils R CynTEXAS42017
Ft. StocktonTEXAS42025
ToyahvaleTEXAS42025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO32025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO32019
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO32025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO32025
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO32014
ComstockTEXAS32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.