BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+104%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.0011
20263.70.0011
20273.70.0011
20283.70.0011
20293.70.0011

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MesillaNEW-MEXICO1122000
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO381977
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO172024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO162019
MarathonTEXAS122023
GirvinTEXAS102017
Ft. DavisTEXAS72023
Sierra BlancTEXAS62024
GageNEW-MEXICO52024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO52024
ComstockTEXAS52023
ShafterTEXAS51984
Ft. StocktonTEXAS52024
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO42023
PinonNEW-MEXICO42016
AltudaTEXAS42021
Devils R CynTEXAS42017
MarfaTEXAS42024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS42023
RoswellNEW-MEXICO32019
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO32014
OzonaTEXAS31997
Bear MtnTEXAS32017
ToyahvaleTEXAS32019
DemingNEW-MEXICO21975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.