BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+75%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Barn Swallow In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.003.6
20271.70.003.7
20281.70.003.7
20291.70.003.7
20301.70.003.7

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinetopARIZONA102022
PatagoniaARIZONA92025
McnealARIZONA72025
SunizonaARIZONA61997
Skull ValleyARIZONA62024
PomereneARIZONA42025
WilliamsARIZONA42025
MaineARIZONA42025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA41996
FlagstaffARIZONA32025
SahuaritaARIZONA32024
PrescottARIZONA22016
RedingtonARIZONA22025
Clay SpringARIZONA22025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22025
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22004
San SimonARIZONA12023
Peña BlancaARIZONA12017
Bartlett ResARIZONA12025
CutterARIZONA12000
AlpineARIZONA12025
AmadoARIZONA12025
Happy JackARIZONA12017
SprucedaleARIZONA12025
PortalARIZONA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.