BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+77%Since 1973
28Routes In Region
52Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Barn Swallow has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029
1.7Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.795% range
±11.8%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.70.003.7
20261.70.003.7
20271.70.003.7
20281.70.003.7
20291.70.003.7

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Sierra Madre Occidental.
FlagstaffARIZONA122016
PinetopARIZONA102022
Clay SpringARIZONA72024
SunizonaARIZONA61997
Skull ValleyARIZONA62024
Mt. GrahamARIZONA41996
Sunizona 2ARIZONA42023
PomereneARIZONA32024
PatagoniaARIZONA32024
WilliamsARIZONA32019
MaineARIZONA32024
RedingtonARIZONA32022
SahuaritaARIZONA32024
SprucedaleARIZONA32019
PrescottARIZONA22016
AmadoARIZONA22023
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22004
San SimonARIZONA12023
Peña BlancaARIZONA12017
CutterARIZONA12000
AlpineARIZONA12023
McnealARIZONA12024
Happy JackARIZONA12017
PortalARIZONA12004
DragoonARIZONA12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.