BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 993% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±336.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+993%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±336.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 993% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±336.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.002.2
20260.730.002.2
20270.730.002.2
20280.730.002.2
20290.730.002.2

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlytheCALIFORNIA201979
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA182023
NilandCALIFORNIA142023
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA122018
Ajo 2ARIZONA82013
GoldstoneCALIFORNIA51998
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA51989
CimaCALIFORNIA51972
DatelandARIZONA42021
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA42005
LagunaARIZONA32023
AntaresARIZONA32018
Palo VerdeARIZONA32013
HopeARIZONA32009
Cutter 2ARIZONA32017
New RiverARIZONA22016
Cibola LakeARIZONA22012
ArabyARIZONA22018
Willow BeachARIZONA21989
Casa GrandeARIZONA22001
BarstowCALIFORNIA21996
PearblossomCALIFORNIA22018
Death ValleyCALIFORNIA21994
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA22013
BrawleyCALIFORNIA22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.