BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Coastal California has surged: up 206% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+206%Since 1970
94Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Barn Swallow has surged in Coastal California: up 206% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Coastal California is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 3.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029
6.6Projected 2029 index
3.2–1095% range
±38%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20256.63.210.0
20266.63.210.0
20276.63.210.0
20286.63.210
20296.63.210

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Coastal California.
OrlandCALIFORNIA2012022
TranquillityCALIFORNIA1072024
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA822024
CoalingaCALIFORNIA652014
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA342023
WestleyCALIFORNIA312024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA282011
CoyoteCALIFORNIA262024
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA262024
MorenoCALIFORNIA232024
ZamoraCALIFORNIA202024
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA202024
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA182018
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA182024
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA132018
PescaderoCALIFORNIA132024
RiovistaCALIFORNIA122024
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA122013
AuburnCALIFORNIA121980
HollisterCALIFORNIA112011
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA112016
HughsonCALIFORNIA102023
S CatalinaCALIFORNIA102022
PenningtonCALIFORNIA92024
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA82003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.