BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+146%Since 1968
333Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Barn Swallow has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029
15Projected 2029 index
11–1895% range
±24.7%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025141118
2026151118
2027151118
2028151118
2029151118

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA1492024
HendersonGEORGIA622024
ShilohGEORGIA532024
NewtonGEORGIA522024
Cypress CrNORTH-CAROLINA502022
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA492019
CottonGEORGIA462024
BackbayVIRGINIA431974
OwensboroGEORGIA422024
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA422024
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA402024
Holly HillSOUTH-CAROLINA402024
WhitevilleTENNESSEE392024
TazewellGEORGIA382024
FinleysonGEORGIA382024
New HollandSOUTH-CAROLINA382024
MansfieldTENNESSEE362024
CyburMISSISSIPPI342019
HumboldtTENNESSEE342024
WeberGEORGIA332024
ColumbiaMISSISSIPPI332018
Leaf RiverMISSISSIPPI332013
DillonSOUTH-CAROLINA312021
HowardALABAMA302024
LibertyALABAMA302022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.