BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 19 (95% range 8.7–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 19 (95% range 8.7–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025198.630
2026198.630
2027198.730
2028198.730
2029198.730

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KeystoneLOUISIANA1162013
BlodgettMISSOURI962024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI612024
MaynardARKANSAS602024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI582022
PawpawTENNESSEE552012
DeventerMISSOURI502024
Port AllenLOUISIANA472024
MayflowerLOUISIANA442024
SaffellARKANSAS402019
WilsonARKANSAS402024
EnglandARKANSAS352024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA322022
CommerceMISSISSIPPI311993
BerwickLOUISIANA272018
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI272024
KelsoARKANSAS262016
Augusta 2ARKANSAS252016
TchulaMISSISSIPPI251975
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE252023
KraemerLOUISIANA212024
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI192011
HaytiMISSOURI192021
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA172023
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI162018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.