BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 8.5–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 8.5–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026198.430
2027198.530
2028198.530
2029198.530
2030198.530

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KeystoneLOUISIANA1162013
MaynardARKANSAS712025
DundeeMISSISSIPPI582022
PawpawTENNESSEE552012
Port AllenLOUISIANA472024
EnglandARKANSAS412025
SaffellARKANSAS402019
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI372025
BlodgettMISSOURI342025
CommerceMISSISSIPPI311993
BerwickLOUISIANA272018
DeventerMISSOURI272025
KelsoARKANSAS262016
WilsonARKANSAS252025
Augusta 2ARKANSAS252016
TchulaMISSISSIPPI251975
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE252025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA242025
RamahLOUISIANA232025
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA222025
KraemerLOUISIANA212025
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI202025
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI192011
HaytiMISSOURI192021
MayflowerLOUISIANA172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.