BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+63%Since 1969
107Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Barn Swallow has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 176% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+176%Change by 2029
16Projected 2029 index
0.00–3295% range
±245.6%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025160.0032
2026160.0032
2027160.0032
2028160.0032
2029160.0032

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Barn Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
ChandlerTEXAS1582004
MatoyOKLAHOMA452000
DerryLOUISIANA441989
EastonLOUISIANA431990
CartervilleLOUISIANA401992
Neches BithTEXAS392017
OakdaleLOUISIANA371994
PocolaOKLAHOMA352016
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA342021
HavanaARKANSAS312021
StarkARKANSAS282024
SmyrnaTEXAS262010
CypressLOUISIANA251987
Derry 2LOUISIANA252024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA252008
Lake CoveLOUISIANA242018
AshdownARKANSAS232023
GraysonLOUISIANA232021
SandbluffOKLAHOMA211995
NatchitochesLOUISIANA201991
Turkey CreekLOUISIANA201999
FillmoreLOUISIANA191989
IvanLOUISIANA192013
Liberty HillTEXAS172023
Coal HillARKANSAS162023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.