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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 176% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+176%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±245.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 176% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025160.0032
2026160.0032
2027160.0032
2028160.0032
2029160.0032

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Barn Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChandlerTEXAS1582004
MatoyOKLAHOMA452000
DerryLOUISIANA441989
EastonLOUISIANA431990
CartervilleLOUISIANA401992
Neches BithTEXAS392017
OakdaleLOUISIANA371994
PocolaOKLAHOMA352016
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA342021
HavanaARKANSAS312021
StarkARKANSAS282024
SmyrnaTEXAS262010
CypressLOUISIANA251987
Derry 2LOUISIANA252024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA252008
Lake CoveLOUISIANA242018
AshdownARKANSAS232023
GraysonLOUISIANA232021
SandbluffOKLAHOMA211995
NatchitochesLOUISIANA201991
Turkey CreekLOUISIANA201999
FillmoreLOUISIANA191989
IvanLOUISIANA192013
Liberty HillTEXAS172023
Coal HillARKANSAS162023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.