BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+100%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 8.4–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 8.4–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025188.327
2026188.327
2027188.427
2028188.427
2029188.427

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OakwoodTEXAS931995
RhomeTEXAS622024
Oak GroveTEXAS551999
DallasTEXAS552024
Miller GroveTEXAS542024
Thornton 2TEXAS492010
Gambill Ref.TEXAS472024
HobsonTEXAS412024
CarlosTEXAS372024
WalburgTEXAS362024
ThorntonTEXAS341984
CayugaTEXAS312024
Mount ZionTEXAS262024
GauseTEXAS241997
Massey LakeTEXAS242024
GrafordTEXAS232019
Wolfe CityTEXAS231987
BriteTEXAS212024
DuranTEXAS211999
CleburneTEXAS212024
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA201977
GainesvilleTEXAS192024
HenriettaTEXAS192022
CreedmoreTEXAS192014
Glen RoseTEXAS162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.