BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+109%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 8.4–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 8.4–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026188.327
2027188.327
2028188.327
2029188.427
2030188.427

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OakwoodTEXAS931995
DallasTEXAS562025
Oak GroveTEXAS551999
Gambill Ref.TEXAS512025
Thornton 2TEXAS492010
Massey LakeTEXAS442025
GrafordTEXAS392025
WalburgTEXAS362025
ThorntonTEXAS341984
Three RiversTEXAS322025
SeldenTEXAS302025
DikeTEXAS282025
GauseTEXAS241997
Wolfe CityTEXAS231987
WeatherfordTEXAS222025
Miller GroveTEXAS222025
DuranTEXAS211999
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA201977
RhomeTEXAS202025
GainesvilleTEXAS202025
OsageTEXAS192025
HenriettaTEXAS192022
CreedmoreTEXAS192014
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA182025
OlaTEXAS182025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.