BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+146%Since 1969
134Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Barn Swallow has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029
12Projected 2029 index
7.4–1795% range
±71.5%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025127.117
2026127.217
2027127.217
2028127.317
2029127.417

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
MiamiTEXAS722024
FloydadaTEXAS542024
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO491975
Murray LakeNEBRASKA482024
DoughertyTEXAS372024
PlymellKANSAS332024
JulesburgCOLORADO302021
KirkCOLORADO262023
Fort MorganCOLORADO262024
PantexTEXAS262024
Two ButtesCOLORADO242015
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO242024
Gordon CreekCOLORADO222022
Prospect ValCOLORADO222000
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO221997
KimballNEBRASKA202022
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA192024
Mica ButteCOLORADO181987
RuletonKANSAS182022
PaxtonNEBRASKA182016
ClovisNEW-MEXICO182024
BennettCOLORADO162018
WakaTEXAS162024
HudsonCOLORADO152024
HookerOKLAHOMA152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.