BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+166%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
134Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 165% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026126.917
2027127.017
2028127.117
2029127.217
2030127.317

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RosebudNEW-MEXICO882025
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO491975
MiamiTEXAS432025
Murray LakeNEBRASKA382025
PantexTEXAS332025
JulesburgCOLORADO302021
TwichellTEXAS302025
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA272025
KirkCOLORADO262023
FloydadaTEXAS262025
Prospect ValCOLORADO222000
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO221997
Two ButtesCOLORADO212025
CrawfordNEBRASKA212025
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO192025
Mica ButteCOLORADO181987
GilpinCOLORADO182025
RuletonKANSAS182022
PaxtonNEBRASKA182016
ClovisNEW-MEXICO182024
WakaTEXAS182025
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA172025
HookerOKLAHOMA172025
DoughertyTEXAS162025
Fort MorganCOLORADO152025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.