BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+146%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
134Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.117
2026127.217
2027127.217
2028127.317
2029127.417

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MiamiTEXAS722024
FloydadaTEXAS542024
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO491975
Murray LakeNEBRASKA482024
DoughertyTEXAS372024
PlymellKANSAS332024
JulesburgCOLORADO302021
KirkCOLORADO262023
Fort MorganCOLORADO262024
PantexTEXAS262024
Two ButtesCOLORADO242015
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO242024
Gordon CreekCOLORADO222022
Prospect ValCOLORADO222000
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO221997
KimballNEBRASKA202022
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA192024
Mica ButteCOLORADO181987
RuletonKANSAS182022
PaxtonNEBRASKA182016
ClovisNEW-MEXICO182024
BennettCOLORADO162018
WakaTEXAS162024
HudsonCOLORADO152024
HookerOKLAHOMA152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.