BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 1.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 1.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.92.112
20266.82.112
20276.72.011
20286.61.911
20296.51.811

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA1342015
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA1272015
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA1182015
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA542023
WinifredMONTANA372023
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA352011
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA352015
DwyerWYOMING352019
St Xavier 2MONTANA272023
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA252023
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA242011
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA242023
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA212024
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA202022
CrookstonNEBRASKA172024
NatronaWYOMING171992
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA152018
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA152022
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA152019
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA152023
LuskWYOMING152024
Coleman CouleeMONTANA142023
ClarkelenWYOMING141978
UptonWYOMING142024
KayceeWYOMING142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.