BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.5 (95% range 1.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.5 (95% range 1.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.82.111
20276.72.011
20286.61.911
20296.51.811
20306.51.811

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA1342015
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA1272015
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA1182015
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA512025
WinifredMONTANA372023
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA352011
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA352015
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA342025
LocateMONTANA282025
St Xavier 2MONTANA272023
KayceeWYOMING272025
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA262025
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA242011
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA212025
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA202022
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA192025
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA182025
PowdervilleMONTANA172025
CrookstonNEBRASKA172025
NatronaWYOMING171992
RoyMONTANA162025
BrandenbergMONTANA162025
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA152022
NewcastleWYOMING152025
RozetWYOMING152025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.