BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
185Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.007.1
20262.10.007.0
20272.00.006.9
20282.00.006.8
20291.90.006.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DoloresCOLORADO1591987
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO371987
KamasUTAH262024
WellingtonUTAH212001
AlamosaCOLORADO202024
CapulinNEW-MEXICO201994
La PlataNEW-MEXICO182013
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO161997
Douglas PassCOLORADO152024
LudlowCOLORADO122016
Animas 2COLORADO122018
Cortez 2COLORADO112017
MountainairNEW-MEXICO112023
Peach SpringARIZONA102024
BufordCOLORADO102024
Wray GulchCOLORADO92023
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO92024
PasturaNEW-MEXICO92019
AztecNEW-MEXICO91989
HarmonyCOLORADO82024
MoffatCOLORADO82024
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO81982
FruitaCOLORADO82007
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO82016
DragertonUTAH82022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.