BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Sierra Nevada has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970
25Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Barn Swallow has collapsed in Sierra Nevada: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029
0.72Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.295% range
±121.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.840.002.3
20260.810.002.3
20270.780.002.3
20280.750.002.2
20290.720.002.2

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Sierra Nevada.
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA81975
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA82005
GeneseeCALIFORNIA62024
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA62023
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA42000
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA31984
DownievilleCALIFORNIA32019
Forest HillCALIFORNIA32019
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA21979
WestvilleCALIFORNIA21986
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA22008
SattleyCALIFORNIA22024
RivertonCALIFORNIA22023
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA22014
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA22019
WawonaCALIFORNIA22011
ChilcootCALIFORNIA22009
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12011
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA11994
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA12014
GoumazCALIFORNIA12005
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12024
StrawberryCALIFORNIA11999
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.