BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968
150Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Barn Swallow has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–7.095% range
±185.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.007.0
20260.000.007.0
20270.000.007.0
20280.000.007.0
20290.000.007.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Forest StaMAINE482000
WatervilleVERMONT421980
NorthfieldMAINE311981
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE311975
BentonMAINE271980
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS232016
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE212024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE202024
HighmarketNEW-YORK182024
St JohnsburyVERMONT182024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE172024
PetersburgNEW-YORK172018
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS162024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT151987
CharlestonMAINE152018
JeffersonMAINE152010
BrownfieldMAINE152009
TopsfieldMAINE141996
Tupper LakeNEW-YORK141976
StacyvilleMAINE132024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS132024
CornvilleMAINE122024
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
Number FourNEW-YORK122016
HardwickVERMONT122024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.