BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211428
2026211428
2027211428
2028211428
2029211328

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E YoungstownNEW-YORK1432023
New SomersetOHIO1001993
RomulusNEW-YORK932000
MaysvilleOHIO932012
LucerneOHIO712024
Valley CityOHIO652024
MacdougallNEW-YORK632024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK632024
LattasburgOHIO582024
GarrettsvileOHIO541991
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA542024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA491979
NashvilleNEW-YORK392018
NaplesNEW-YORK392024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA392024
OrleansNEW-YORK362024
PenfieldNEW-YORK362024
West BangorNEW-YORK351999
HiramOHIO342021
HinesburgVERMONT331994
BranchportNEW-YORK322024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA322024
SheridanNEW-YORK292024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK282024
PittsfieldOHIO272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.