BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968
86Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029
21Projected 2029 index
13–2895% range
±5%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025211428
2026211428
2027211428
2028211428
2029211328

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
E YoungstownNEW-YORK1432023
New SomersetOHIO1001993
RomulusNEW-YORK932000
MaysvilleOHIO932012
LucerneOHIO712024
Valley CityOHIO652024
MacdougallNEW-YORK632024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK632024
LattasburgOHIO582024
GarrettsvileOHIO541991
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA542024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA491979
NashvilleNEW-YORK392018
NaplesNEW-YORK392024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA392024
OrleansNEW-YORK362024
PenfieldNEW-YORK362024
West BangorNEW-YORK351999
HiramOHIO342021
HinesburgVERMONT331994
BranchportNEW-YORK322024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA322024
SheridanNEW-YORK292024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK282024
PittsfieldOHIO272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.