BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968
113Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Barn Swallow has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2029
0.86Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.995% range
±19.5%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.50.004.5
20261.30.004.4
20271.20.004.2
20281.00.004.1
20290.860.003.9

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA352023
BagleyMINNESOTA302006
Cedar RunMICHIGAN271999
BrainerdMINNESOTA192024
PickfordMICHIGAN142024
Grand ViewWISCONSIN142011
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN111996
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN101997
GreenbushMINNESOTA102024
BemidjiMINNESOTA91980
Iron RiverWISCONSIN92024
FlambeauWISCONSIN92024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN82024
Pine RiverMINNESOTA82024
WausaukeeWISCONSIN82024
Lake CityMICHIGAN72022
OberlinMICHIGAN72024
HerronMICHIGAN72016
GilmanWISCONSIN72024
Maple GroveMICHIGAN62024
CathroMICHIGAN62016
WaskishMINNESOTA62022
BayfieldWISCONSIN62024
OntonagonMICHIGAN52019
CunardMICHIGAN52021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.