BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
187Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barn Swallow In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.003.9
20271.10.003.8
20280.970.003.7
20290.860.003.6
20300.750.003.5

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.MONTANA462025
OttoWYOMING422025
BasinWYOMING412025
Browns ParkCOLORADO362007
Rock RiverWYOMING352022
CascadeIDAHO291984
SpartaOREGON222025
Gas Hills 2WYOMING162025
CentervilleIDAHO152025
LeoWYOMING132025
MaybellCOLORADO102025
ChestnutMONTANA102018
BeaverheadMONTANA102025
MadrasOREGON102025
Elk HornWYOMING102018
Bear CreekWYOMING102015
SweetwaterWYOMING102025
Twin BridgesMONTANA81976
St. Mary 2MONTANA82023
Mount VernonOREGON82024
CodyWYOMING82025
LayCOLORADO72025
CoolinIDAHO72024
Libby DamMONTANA72025
EllistonMONTANA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.