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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+53%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Bank Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±341.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±341.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±341.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.35
20260.150.000.36
20270.150.000.36
20280.150.000.36
20290.150.000.36

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kenai Lake (Short)ALASKA361992
Copper RiverALASKA142011
HainesALASKA61995
OrleansCALIFORNIA52009
EverettWASHINGTON52024
Sheep MtnALASKA32007
Juneau AltALASKA21986
HopeALASKA21993
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA22010
Days CreekOREGON22014
GarfieldOREGON21978
South ElmaWASHINGTON22024
MukilteoWASHINGTON22024
JuneauALASKA12006
CordovaALASKA12011
YakutatALASKA12004
HyderALASKA12000
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA12024
Fish RockCALIFORNIA11969
YrekaCALIFORNIA11984
WedderburnOREGON11989
DaytonOREGON11974
ProspectOREGON12022
Mt St HelensWASHINGTON11998
Bay ViewWASHINGTON12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.