BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-86%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bank Swallow In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.23 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±204.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±204.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.23 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±204.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.005.7
20250.000.005.7
20260.000.005.7
20270.000.005.7
20280.000.005.7

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
El IndioTEXAS402001
La PryorTEXAS371974
RaymondvilleTEXAS62009
LaredoTEXAS42023
ProgresoTEXAS22011
RachalTEXAS11989
ZapataTEXAS11982
KingsvilleTEXAS12005
San YgnacioTEXAS11982
HeidelbergTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.