BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.001.7
20260.270.001.7
20270.240.001.7
20280.220.001.6
20290.200.001.6

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Bank Swallow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND502010
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA212009
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY161976
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS151972
GranbyCONNECTICUT122014
Mt PleasantDELAWARE122015
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS102004
MysticCONNECTICUT72004
HolleyvilleDELAWARE62003
Piney NeckMARYLAND62019
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY62016
HuntingtonNEW-YORK62011
WoodstockCONNECTICUT51976
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT52011
NortheastMARYLAND51994
MatthewsMARYLAND51966
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND52024
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS51970
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS52023
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS51999
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY51966
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT42022
MiltonDELAWARE41969
Cape NeddickMAINE41972
JonesMARYLAND41975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.