BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Piedmont has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Piedmont: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±449%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±449%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±449%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.050.000.44
20200.050.000.44
20210.050.000.44
20220.050.000.43
20230.040.000.43

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MadonnaMARYLAND642010
SandbrookNEW-JERSEY61993
TaylorstownVIRGINIA61985
Upper XrdsMARYLAND41970
TheodoreMARYLAND42013
CallNORTH-CAROLINA32001
Bachman MillMARYLAND21994
Van BibberMARYLAND21966
AspersPENNSYLVANIA21980
TrymeVIRGINIA21979
EmmitsburgMARYLAND12017
OlneyMARYLAND12015
Pleasant ValMARYLAND11994
EkloMARYLAND11979
IjamsvilleMARYLAND12015
PottersvilleNEW-JERSEY11983
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA11986
WacoNORTH-CAROLINA12004
Mt GretnaPENNSYLVANIA11970
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA11984
Doe RunPENNSYLVANIA11992
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA12018
JacobusPENNSYLVANIA11992
ShipmanVIRGINIA11979
Church RoadVIRGINIA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.