Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Bank Swallow In BCR 2
Bank Swallow in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
-68%Since 1985
22Routes In Region
41Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 9.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-55%Change by 2029
4.2Projected 2029 index
0.00–2195% range
±52.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.4 | 0.00 | 22 |
| 2026 | 5.1 | 0.00 | 22 |
| 2027 | 4.8 | 0.00 | 21 |
| 2028 | 4.5 | 0.00 | 21 |
| 2029 | 4.2 | 0.00 | 21 |
Routes In BCR 2
| Kanektok Riv | ALASKA | 223 | 2005 |
| Tupuknuk | ALASKA | 160 | 1995 |
| Selawik (Short) | ALASKA | 93 | 1987 |
| Goodnews Bay | ALASKA | 58 | 2005 |
| King Salmon | ALASKA | 57 | 2024 |
| Dillingham (Short) | ALASKA | 56 | 1984 |
| Gweek River | ALASKA | 32 | 2002 |
| Kodiak | ALASKA | 19 | 1984 |
| Togiak River | ALASKA | 14 | 2005 |
| Chiniak | ALASKA | 12 | 2024 |
| Cold Bay | ALASKA | 9 | 2024 |
| Kotzebue | ALASKA | 5 | 2024 |
| Katmai N.P. | ALASKA | 4 | 1996 |
| Cold Bay (Short) | ALASKA | 3 | 1992 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | ALASKA | 2 | 1994 |
| Dillingham | ALASKA | 1 | 2001 |
| Kodiak 2 | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| Council | ALASKA | 1 | 2005 |
| Nome | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| Salmon Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| St. Mary'S | ALASKA | 1 | 1996 |
| Kugarak (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 1986 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.