BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 11× by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±677.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

11×Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±677.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 11× by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±677.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.005.7
20261.80.005.7
20271.80.005.7
20281.80.005.7
20291.90.005.8

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeaverOKLAHOMA9722007
GraybackTEXAS141970
AlmeriaNEBRASKA122021
RandlettOKLAHOMA122005
OcontoNEBRASKA91975
St JohnKANSAS82015
DouglasOKLAHOMA82022
SicklesOKLAHOMA81992
SumnerNEBRASKA62024
CoatsKANSAS52023
BartleyNEBRASKA51994
HendleyNEBRASKA52021
WakitaOKLAHOMA52013
DaltonKANSAS42008
PhillipsburgKANSAS42016
ColdwaterKANSAS32019
LoganKANSAS31988
MisslerKANSAS31985
LibertyNEBRASKA31986
SurpriseNEBRASKA31975
Piester LakeNEBRASKA32024
KennedyNEBRASKA32009
VerdenOKLAHOMA31967
WellingtonKANSAS21983
AlbertKANSAS21995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.