BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-97%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bank Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±924.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±924.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±924.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.4
20260.000.001.4
20270.000.001.4
20280.000.001.4
20290.000.001.4

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murray LakeNEBRASKA142013
WallaceKANSAS132003
Fort MorganCOLORADO122021
Prospect ValCOLORADO111992
LamarCOLORADO101995
ArsenalCOLORADO102015
DaltonNEBRASKA101987
HardestyOKLAHOMA102006
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA62000
Agate 2NEBRASKA52022
YoderWYOMING51968
Two ButtesCOLORADO31995
PaxtonNEBRASKA31992
Pine BluffWYOMING31992
LakinKANSAS22001
BenkelmanNEBRASKA22008
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO21995
RosebudNEW-MEXICO22003
Mica ButteCOLORADO11968
HudsonCOLORADO12024
Adams Co.COLORADO11995
AgateNEBRASKA11995
MarslandNEBRASKA12018
FeltOKLAHOMA12007
KeyesOKLAHOMA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.