BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bank Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-97%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bank Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±845.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±845.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±845.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.001.4
20270.000.001.4
20280.000.001.4
20290.000.001.4
20300.000.001.4

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murray LakeNEBRASKA142013
WallaceKANSAS132003
Fort MorganCOLORADO122021
Prospect ValCOLORADO111992
LamarCOLORADO101995
NunnCOLORADO102025
ArsenalCOLORADO102015
DaltonNEBRASKA101987
HardestyOKLAHOMA102006
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA62000
Agate 2NEBRASKA52022
YoderWYOMING51968
Two ButtesCOLORADO31995
PaxtonNEBRASKA31992
Pine BluffWYOMING31992
LakinKANSAS22001
BenkelmanNEBRASKA22008
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO21995
RosebudNEW-MEXICO22003
Mica ButteCOLORADO11968
HudsonCOLORADO12024
Adams Co.COLORADO11995
AgateNEBRASKA11995
MarslandNEBRASKA12018
FeltOKLAHOMA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.