BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-87%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Bank Swallow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±242.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±242.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±242.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.46
20260.070.000.45
20270.060.000.45
20280.060.000.44
20290.050.000.44

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DoloresCOLORADO181974
San LuisCOLORADO102000
Rifle FallsCOLORADO62014
DragertonUTAH51973
CastletonUTAH51975
Moon Lake 2UTAH52005
HannaUTAH52024
Wellington 2UTAH52010
Fox ParkWYOMING51999
ParlinCOLORADO41983
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO42015
BicknellUTAH42002
EscalanteUTAH42007
HarmonyCOLORADO31980
KamasUTAH32024
WellingtonUTAH32002
YampaCOLORADO22013
BufordCOLORADO22021
Wilson CreekCOLORADO21998
De BequeCOLORADO21995
PaoniaCOLORADO21998
AntonitoCOLORADO22000
Piceance BasinCOLORADO22006
AltonahUTAH21979
JensenUTAH22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.