Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Bank Swallow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
Bank Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-84%Since 1968
73Routes In Region
58Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Bank Swallow has collapsed in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-54%Change by 2029
0.50Projected 2029 index
0.00–6.395% range
±44.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 6.8 |
| 2026 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 6.6 |
| 2027 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 6.5 |
| 2028 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 6.4 |
| 2029 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 6.3 |
Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
| Cayuga | NEW-YORK | 66 | 1996 |
| Alder Creek | NEW-YORK | 49 | 2004 |
| Macdougall | NEW-YORK | 39 | 2024 |
| Salem | NEW-YORK | 30 | 2014 |
| Hiram | OHIO | 30 | 2021 |
| Garrettsvile | OHIO | 18 | 1991 |
| Watertown | NEW-YORK | 16 | 2012 |
| Rhinebeck | NEW-YORK | 15 | 2017 |
| North Easton | NEW-YORK | 14 | 1996 |
| West Seneca | NEW-YORK | 13 | 2004 |
| Cicero Ctr | NEW-YORK | 12 | 1988 |
| Hopkinton | NEW-YORK | 12 | 1990 |
| Hinesburg | VERMONT | 12 | 1994 |
| Byron | NEW-YORK | 8 | 2019 |
| Harris Hill | NEW-YORK | 8 | 2022 |
| Mendon | NEW-YORK | 7 | 1975 |
| Nashville | NEW-YORK | 7 | 2000 |
| Catskills | NEW-YORK | 6 | 1970 |
| Pulaski | NEW-YORK | 6 | 2008 |
| Naples | NEW-YORK | 6 | 2024 |
| Strongsville | OHIO | 6 | 1983 |
| Ghent | NEW-YORK | 5 | 2008 |
| Rushville | NEW-YORK | 5 | 1975 |
| Sheridan | NEW-YORK | 5 | 1991 |
| Oneida | NEW-YORK | 5 | 2010 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.