BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.990.006.8
20260.870.006.6
20270.750.006.5
20280.620.006.4
20290.500.006.3

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CayugaNEW-YORK661996
Alder CreekNEW-YORK492004
MacdougallNEW-YORK392024
SalemNEW-YORK302014
HiramOHIO302021
GarrettsvileOHIO181991
WatertownNEW-YORK162012
RhinebeckNEW-YORK152017
North EastonNEW-YORK141996
West SenecaNEW-YORK132004
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK121988
HopkintonNEW-YORK121990
HinesburgVERMONT121994
ByronNEW-YORK82019
Harris HillNEW-YORK82022
MendonNEW-YORK71975
NashvilleNEW-YORK72000
CatskillsNEW-YORK61970
PulaskiNEW-YORK62008
NaplesNEW-YORK62024
StrongsvilleOHIO61983
GhentNEW-YORK52008
RushvilleNEW-YORK51975
SheridanNEW-YORK51991
OneidaNEW-YORK52010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.