BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Northern Rockies has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Northern Rockies: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.004.3
20260.510.004.2
20270.420.004.1
20280.330.004.0
20290.240.003.9

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford MtsUTAH3002017
Clyde ParkMONTANA512024
Neponset ResUTAH482018
SpartaOREGON422001
Mtn ViewWYOMING412024
Twin BridgesMONTANA391976
Pablo Res.MONTANA342023
Red RockMONTANA301997
YellowstoneWYOMING302022
EtheteWYOMING292024
Willow Creek 2MONTANA262024
PathfinderWYOMING252024
RyegrassWYOMING252017
SeedskadeeWYOMING232023
DonnybrookOREGON221997
Church HillMONTANA212024
WalcottWYOMING212018
Saleratus CrUTAH192000
CoolinIDAHO162024
CodyWYOMING152018
CascadeIDAHO121983
DiamondvilleWYOMING121979
LaurierWASHINGTON112012
NaplesIDAHO102023
HarmonyWYOMING101989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.