BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bald Eagle In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Bald Eagle in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 2003.

+126%Since 2003TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bald Eagle has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 2003.

Bald Eagle In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.04–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.04–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20012029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.020.23
20260.130.030.24
20270.130.030.24
20280.140.030.24
20290.140.040.24

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Bald Eagle in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA42022
SattleyCALIFORNIA22024
ChilcootCALIFORNIA22023
StrawberryCALIFORNIA22012
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12019
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA12019
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12023
GoumazCALIFORNIA12009
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.