BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bald Eagle In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainBirds of prey

Bald Eagle in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 806% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+806%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bald Eagle in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Bald Eagle In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.10–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.10–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.080.27
20270.180.080.27
20280.180.090.28
20290.190.100.28
20300.200.100.29

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Bald Eagle in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LucerneOHIO32025
PittsfieldOHIO22024
Herner CrnsOHIO22025
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA22025
HighlandNEW-YORK12021
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12025
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12024
OrleansNEW-YORK12023
RushvilleNEW-YORK12021
BranchportNEW-YORK12014
Canadice LNEW-YORK12023
MendonNEW-YORK12024
CastileNEW-YORK12024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK12019
NashvilleNEW-YORK12018
ByronNEW-YORK12022
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK12022
PenfieldNEW-YORK11993
N Victory 2NEW-YORK12019
WatertownNEW-YORK12006
SalemNEW-YORK12021
North EastonNEW-YORK12025
NaplesNEW-YORK12022
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK12025
MiddlefieldOHIO12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.