BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bald Eagle In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Bald Eagle in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 556% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+556%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bald Eagle has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 556% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

Bald Eagle In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.09–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bald Eagle in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.09–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.070.22
20260.150.070.22
20270.150.080.23
20280.160.080.23
20290.160.090.24

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Bald Eagle in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PittsfieldOHIO22024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA22022
HighlandNEW-YORK12021
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12014
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12024
OrleansNEW-YORK12023
RushvilleNEW-YORK12021
BranchportNEW-YORK12014
Canadice LNEW-YORK12023
MendonNEW-YORK12024
CastileNEW-YORK12024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK12019
NashvilleNEW-YORK12018
ByronNEW-YORK12022
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK12022
PenfieldNEW-YORK11993
N Victory 2NEW-YORK12019
WatertownNEW-YORK12006
SalemNEW-YORK12021
NaplesNEW-YORK12022
MiddlefieldOHIO12006
LenoxOHIO12024
Herner CrnsOHIO12024
Valley CityOHIO12024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.