BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bachman's Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Bachman's Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.010.000.03
20290.010.000.03

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreensportALABAMA21998
Mt OliveALABAMA21994
Borden SprngALABAMA21998
LinwoodGEORGIA21985
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA21981
Smyer LakeALABAMA11966
ChildersburgALABAMA11999
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA12024
OakmanGEORGIA11970
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY11977
KehoeKENTUCKY11972
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.