BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bachman's Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Bachman's Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.01–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.01–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.041.2
20260.630.031.2
20270.620.021.2
20280.620.021.2
20290.610.011.2

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI311987
BlackwaterFLORIDA282024
BloxhamFLORIDA142022
BelmontFLORIDA112005
OlusteeFLORIDA112022
NeedmoreGEORGIA101983
WeberGEORGIA102024
NixonFLORIDA91986
BristolFLORIDA92023
BostonGEORGIA92024
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA92024
GrangeburgALABAMA81995
CarrolltonALABAMA81993
Eglin A.F.B.FLORIDA82011
Oak GroveFLORIDA72011
HilliardFLORIDA72024
Alligator PtFLORIDA72024
PhilemaGEORGIA72024
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA72008
Broad CreekNORTH-CAROLINA72024
Dowling ParkFLORIDA62023
NewtonGEORGIA62024
LacombeLOUISIANA61983
GuytonGEORGIA51989
GlenmoreGEORGIA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.