BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bachman's Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Bachman's Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
167Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bachman's Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Bachman's Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.03–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.03–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.660.061.3
20270.650.051.3
20280.640.041.2
20290.640.041.2
20300.630.031.2

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI311987
BlackwaterFLORIDA192025
PhilemaGEORGIA152025
OlusteeFLORIDA122025
BelmontFLORIDA112005
BloxhamFLORIDA102025
BostonGEORGIA102025
NeedmoreGEORGIA101983
NixonFLORIDA91986
BristolFLORIDA92023
GrangeburgALABAMA81995
MclellanALABAMA82025
CarrolltonALABAMA81993
MiccosukeeFLORIDA82025
Eglin A.F.B.FLORIDA82011
GlenmoreGEORGIA82025
Oak GroveFLORIDA72011
HilliardFLORIDA72024
Alligator PtFLORIDA72024
NewtonGEORGIA72025
WeberGEORGIA72025
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA72008
NixvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA72025
CourthouseGEORGIA62025
LacombeLOUISIANA61983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.