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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bachman's Sparrow has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bachman's Sparrow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.47
20260.070.000.46
20270.060.000.45
20280.040.000.44
20290.030.000.43

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mer RougeLOUISIANA112006
MortonTEXAS91977
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA52023
De QuincyLOUISIANA41998
NatchezLOUISIANA42024
DerryLOUISIANA31989
Fort PolkLOUISIANA31975
Derry 2LOUISIANA31997
BlancoOKLAHOMA31994
Locust BayouARKANSAS22001
CrowsARKANSAS21984
BlakelyARKANSAS21986
PrincetonARKANSAS22011
Four LakesARKANSAS22001
FishvilleLOUISIANA22008
ClayLOUISIANA21972
Hargis 2LOUISIANA22013
Big CedarOKLAHOMA21986
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA22018
AthensTEXAS21984
FredTEXAS22000
Old MiloARKANSAS11996
RamseyARKANSAS11981
StampsARKANSAS11988
HopeARKANSAS11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.