BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+90%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Great Basin: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.971.8
20271.40.991.8
20281.41.01.9
20291.41.01.9
20301.51.01.9

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DeschutesOREGON392025
CalienteNEVADA352025
Iron GateCALIFORNIA312019
Meadow VallyNEVADA252025
Walker CanNEVADA122024
Desert NwrNEVADA122025
PromontoryUTAH112025
RanchograndeNEVADA92024
Goose Creek Mtn.UTAH92025
IngallsCALIFORNIA82025
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA82018
MerrillOREGON72022
Wah WahUTAH72004
WillisNEVADA62025
MacdoelCALIFORNIA52019
TionestaCALIFORNIA52021
Fandango CanOREGON52025
Crooked Riv.OREGON52025
Jericho JunctionUTAH52025
NewcastleUTAH52025
NubieberCALIFORNIA42018
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA42011
CortezNEVADA42023
HikoNEVADA42025
Carson RiverNEVADA42005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.