BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+70%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.941.8
20261.40.961.8
20271.40.971.8
20281.40.991.8
20291.41.01.9

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DeschutesOREGON442024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA312019
Meadow VallyNEVADA312024
Desert NwrNEVADA232024
Walker CanNEVADA122024
Green Mtn.OREGON112024
RanchograndeNEVADA92024
HikoNEVADA92023
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA82018
CalienteNEVADA82021
BerylUTAH82024
Goose Creek Mtn.UTAH82023
MerrillOREGON72022
Wah WahUTAH72004
Catlow RimOREGON62024
MacdoelCALIFORNIA52019
TionestaCALIFORNIA52021
NubieberCALIFORNIA42018
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA42011
CortezNEVADA42023
Carson RiverNEVADA42005
WagontireOREGON42024
PromontoryUTAH42024
Jericho JunctionUTAH42024
Tule ValleyUTAH42013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.