BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+70%Since 1970
93Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Ash-throated Flycatcher has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029
1.4Projected 2029 index
1.0–1.995% range
±26.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.40.941.8
20261.40.961.8
20271.40.971.8
20281.40.991.8
20291.41.01.9

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Great Basin.
DeschutesOREGON442024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA312019
Meadow VallyNEVADA312024
Desert NwrNEVADA232024
Walker CanNEVADA122024
Green Mtn.OREGON112024
RanchograndeNEVADA92024
HikoNEVADA92023
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA82018
CalienteNEVADA82021
BerylUTAH82024
Goose Creek Mtn.UTAH82023
MerrillOREGON72022
Wah WahUTAH72004
Catlow RimOREGON62024
MacdoelCALIFORNIA52019
TionestaCALIFORNIA52021
NubieberCALIFORNIA42018
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA42011
CortezNEVADA42023
Carson RiverNEVADA42005
WagontireOREGON42024
PromontoryUTAH42024
Jericho JunctionUTAH42024
Tule ValleyUTAH42013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.