BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+67%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has risen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±821.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.92Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±821.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±821.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.890.001.8
20270.900.001.8
20280.900.001.9
20290.910.001.9
20300.920.001.9

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San PedroTEXAS302025
Loyola BeachTEXAS242009
PetronilaTEXAS42006
IndianolaTEXAS22014
McfaddinTEXAS22014
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12025
Bayside 2TEXAS12001
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12016
Padre Island PaisTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.