BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-30%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 263% by 2028 — from 0.22 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±979.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+263%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±979.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 263% by 2028 — from 0.22 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±979.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.780.001.7
20250.780.001.7
20260.780.001.7
20270.780.001.7
20280.790.001.7

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola BeachTEXAS242009
PetronilaTEXAS42006
San PedroTEXAS42023
IndianolaTEXAS22014
McfaddinTEXAS22014
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12023
Bayside 2TEXAS12001
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12016
Padre Island PaisTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.