BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+114%Since 1969
27Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 4.5–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029
8.9Projected 2029 index
4.5–1395% range
±72.1%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20258.74.213
20268.74.313
20278.84.313
20288.94.413
20298.94.513

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
EncinalTEXAS282010
LaredoTEXAS182019
CatarinaTEXAS172010
El IndioTEXAS172007
HondoTEXAS162024
Catarina 3TEXAS152024
GuerraTEXAS142023
Encinal 2TEXAS122024
George WestTEXAS112024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS102013
El SauzTEXAS92015
Pedro CreekTEXAS92010
MillettTEXAS82012
La PryorTEXAS72017
Catarina 2TEXAS72017
Agua NuevaTEXAS52023
Millett 2TEXAS52024
Mirando CityTEXAS42024
RachalTEXAS22023
ZapataTEXAS21982
KingsvilleTEXAS22024
San YgnacioTEXAS21985
RandadoTEXAS12024
RaymondvilleTEXAS11993
DilleyTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.