BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+152%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.0 (95% range 4.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.0 (95% range 4.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.84.313
20278.84.413
20288.94.513
20299.04.513
20309.04.613

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EncinalTEXAS282010
GuerraTEXAS252025
HondoTEXAS182025
LaredoTEXAS182019
CatarinaTEXAS172010
El IndioTEXAS172007
RachalTEXAS162025
George WestTEXAS112025
El SauzTEXAS92015
Pedro CreekTEXAS92010
Encinal 2TEXAS82025
MillettTEXAS82012
La PryorTEXAS72017
Catarina 2TEXAS72017
DilleyTEXAS62025
Catarina 3TEXAS62025
Agua NuevaTEXAS52023
Millett 2TEXAS52024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS52025
Mirando CityTEXAS42025
ZapataTEXAS21982
KingsvilleTEXAS22024
San YgnacioTEXAS21985
RandadoTEXAS12025
RaymondvilleTEXAS11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.