BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+114%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 4.5–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 4.5–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.74.213
20268.74.313
20278.84.313
20288.94.413
20298.94.513

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EncinalTEXAS282010
LaredoTEXAS182019
CatarinaTEXAS172010
El IndioTEXAS172007
HondoTEXAS162024
Catarina 3TEXAS152024
GuerraTEXAS142023
Encinal 2TEXAS122024
George WestTEXAS112024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS102013
El SauzTEXAS92015
Pedro CreekTEXAS92010
MillettTEXAS82012
La PryorTEXAS72017
Catarina 2TEXAS72017
Agua NuevaTEXAS52023
Millett 2TEXAS52024
Mirando CityTEXAS42024
RachalTEXAS22023
ZapataTEXAS21982
KingsvilleTEXAS22024
San YgnacioTEXAS21985
RandadoTEXAS12024
RaymondvilleTEXAS11993
DilleyTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.