BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+25%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 8.4–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 8.4–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025178.525
2026178.525
2027178.525
2028178.425
2029178.425

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA782024
Peña BlancaARIZONA582024
DragoonARIZONA532009
RedingtonARIZONA372023
Clay SpringARIZONA332024
Skull ValleyARIZONA292024
AmadoARIZONA282023
McnealARIZONA272024
Forest LakesARIZONA252024
CutterARIZONA252014
PatagoniaARIZONA242024
Bartlett ResARIZONA242024
SahuaritaARIZONA222024
SunizonaARIZONA211997
PortalARIZONA202024
RuckerARIZONA202009
San SimonARIZONA192024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO182023
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA162021
PinetopARIZONA152022
Carr MtnARIZONA132024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA132024
Aztec PeakARIZONA121978
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO112024
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.