BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 8.8–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.8–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 8.8–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026178.925
2027178.825
2028178.825
2029178.825
2030178.825

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carr MtnARIZONA632025
Peña BlancaARIZONA572025
PomereneARIZONA562025
DragoonARIZONA532009
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA462025
McnealARIZONA402025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA382025
RedingtonARIZONA352025
Clay SpringARIZONA322025
Bartlett ResARIZONA312025
Skull ValleyARIZONA292024
PatagoniaARIZONA262025
CutterARIZONA252014
AmadoARIZONA222025
SprucedaleARIZONA222025
SunizonaARIZONA211997
Forest LakesARIZONA202025
RuckerARIZONA202009
San SimonARIZONA192024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO192025
PortalARIZONA182025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO182025
PinetopARIZONA152022
Sunizona 2ARIZONA152025
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO152025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.