BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has risen sharply: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+75%Since 1970
80Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Ash-throated Flycatcher has risen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 12–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029
19Projected 2029 index
12–2595% range
±29.7%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025181124
2026181225
2027181225
2028181225
2029191225

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Bates WellARIZONA542023
Cabeza PrietARIZONA522024
Organ PipeARIZONA442023
GlamisCALIFORNIA422018
Red Rock 2ARIZONA412024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA402024
VicksburgARIZONA371989
QuartzsiteARIZONA342024
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA332024
New RiverARIZONA322016
Gila BendARIZONA292024
PisinimoARIZONA281993
Willow BeachARIZONA271997
AjoARIZONA262008
Cibola LakeARIZONA222024
Cutter 2ARIZONA222018
HopeARIZONA202009
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA202024
CimaCALIFORNIA202021
Squaw PeakARIZONA181970
Casa GrandeARIZONA182023
LukevilleARIZONA161981
OnyxCALIFORNIA162001
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA162002
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA162016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.