BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+67%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has risen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181124
2027181124
2028181125
2029181225
2030181225

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
QuartzsiteARIZONA842025
Bates WellARIZONA542023
Cabeza PrietARIZONA452025
Organ PipeARIZONA442023
GlamisCALIFORNIA422018
Red Rock 2ARIZONA412024
VicksburgARIZONA371989
Gila BendARIZONA342025
New RiverARIZONA322016
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA322025
Alamo Res.ARIZONA302025
PisinimoARIZONA281993
Willow BeachARIZONA271997
AjoARIZONA262008
Cibola LakeARIZONA222024
Cutter 2ARIZONA222018
HopeARIZONA202009
CimaCALIFORNIA202021
Squaw PeakARIZONA181970
Casa GrandeARIZONA182023
LukevilleARIZONA161981
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA162025
OnyxCALIFORNIA162001
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA162002
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA162025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.