BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Coastal California has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+102%Since 1970
117Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Coastal California: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Coastal California is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029
17Projected 2029 index
13–2295% range
±18.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025171321
2026171321
2027171321
2028171322
2029171322

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Coastal California.
White RiverCALIFORNIA1261992
RumseyCALIFORNIA672008
JacksonCALIFORNIA491992
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA471997
OnealsCALIFORNIA452024
Red BluffCALIFORNIA442024
TujungaCALIFORNIA442021
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA392016
FolsomCALIFORNIA372024
SisquocCALIFORNIA372014
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA362024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA362011
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA332024
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA322024
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA322024
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA322019
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA312024
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA302024
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA302024
JacumbaCALIFORNIA292024
Gold HillCALIFORNIA292024
San Benito Mtn.CALIFORNIA292009
CohassetCALIFORNIA272024
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA272019
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.