BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+47%Since 1969
63Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.1–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029
2.1Projected 2029 index
1.1–3.195% range
±33.1%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.00.983.0
20262.01.03.1
20272.11.03.1
20282.11.13.1
20292.11.13.1

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie.
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO212022
LoganNEW-MEXICO212024
MentoneTEXAS212015
PecosTEXAS212017
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO202021
StilesTEXAS142024
HobbsNEW-MEXICO132024
FloydNEW-MEXICO92024
RankinTEXAS92024
WinkTEXAS81986
San SimonNEW-MEXICO72019
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO62024
CaprockNEW-MEXICO62024
FeltOKLAHOMA62024
KermitTEXAS61999
SaragosaTEXAS62024
TrincheraCOLORADO52022
PepNEW-MEXICO52024
Frankel CityTEXAS52022
Kermit 2TEXAS52024
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO41975
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO41975
SedanNEW-MEXICO42023
PostTEXAS42024
ChanningTEXAS42013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.