BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.0–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.0–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.953.0
20272.00.983.0
20282.01.03.1
20292.11.03.1
20302.11.03.1

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LoganNEW-MEXICO302025
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO212022
MentoneTEXAS212015
PecosTEXAS212017
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO202021
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO92025
WinkTEXAS81986
San SimonNEW-MEXICO72019
PlainsTEXAS72025
StilesTEXAS72025
FloydNEW-MEXICO62025
HobbsNEW-MEXICO62025
FeltOKLAHOMA62024
RankinTEXAS62025
KermitTEXAS61999
TrincheraCOLORADO52025
PepNEW-MEXICO52024
Frankel CityTEXAS52022
SaragosaTEXAS52025
Kermit 2TEXAS52024
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO41975
CaprockNEW-MEXICO42025
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO41975
SedanNEW-MEXICO42023
PostTEXAS42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.