BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 3.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 3.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.63.55.8
20264.73.55.8
20274.73.65.9
20284.83.65.9
20294.83.75.9

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO392024
ShivwitzUTAH382024
MountainairNEW-MEXICO332024
PecosNEW-MEXICO272017
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO252023
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO252016
CokedaleCOLORADO232024
Baxter PassCOLORADO232024
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO232024
HatchUTAH232024
Peach SpringARIZONA222024
PageARIZONA212019
Douglas PassCOLORADO212024
WalsenburgCOLORADO202024
NageesiNEW-MEXICO202024
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO202000
Salt Lake 2NEW-MEXICO192024
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO182022
BlandingUTAH182024
EscalanteUTAH182024
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO171999
La PlataNEW-MEXICO162013
AnethUTAH152024
Black MesaARIZONA141995
ClevelandUTAH142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.