BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+77%Since 1970
159Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 3.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029
4.8Projected 2029 index
3.7–5.995% range
±13.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.63.55.8
20264.73.55.8
20274.73.65.9
20284.83.65.9
20294.83.75.9

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO392024
ShivwitzUTAH382024
MountainairNEW-MEXICO332024
PecosNEW-MEXICO272017
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO252023
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO252016
CokedaleCOLORADO232024
Baxter PassCOLORADO232024
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO232024
HatchUTAH232024
Peach SpringARIZONA222024
PageARIZONA212019
Douglas PassCOLORADO212024
WalsenburgCOLORADO202024
NageesiNEW-MEXICO202024
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO202000
Salt Lake 2NEW-MEXICO192024
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO182022
BlandingUTAH182024
EscalanteUTAH182024
Stinking Lk.NEW-MEXICO171999
La PlataNEW-MEXICO162013
AnethUTAH152024
Black MesaARIZONA141995
ClevelandUTAH142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.