BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970
19Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Ash-throated Flycatcher has collapsed in Sierra Nevada: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029
0.67Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.195% range
±57.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.870.003.3
20260.820.003.2
20270.770.003.2
20280.720.003.1
20290.670.003.1

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada.
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA292019
Silver CityCALIFORNIA282013
KernvilleCALIFORNIA132008
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA72008
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA62024
WawonaCALIFORNIA62024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA52024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA32019
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA22024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11975
LumberyardCALIFORNIA12017
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12018
GeneseeCALIFORNIA11975
DownievilleCALIFORNIA11985
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA11993
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12018
Forest HillCALIFORNIA12004
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA12022
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.