BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Woodcock Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesShorebirds

American Woodcock in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-70%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Woodcock Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Woodcock has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Woodcock Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, American Woodcock in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Woodcock in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.09
20260.010.000.08
20270.010.000.08
20280.010.000.08
20290.000.000.08

American Woodcock Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording American Woodcock in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Backus519811968
Sherburne Nr320222005
Hart Lake220121976
Nett Lake220132013
Ash Creek119751975
Tamarac Nwr120231998
Lakeville120001999
Cass Lake120051984
Nebish119841982
Princeton119851975
Cromwell120051974
Mille Lacs120142007
Pine River119761967
Hovland119891976
Lockport119731972
Sawbill Lndg119841984
Floodwood119671967
Cohasset119871987
Sherry Lake119901990
Bemidji119791979
Debs119961991
Crane Lake119711971
Lude119861986
Waskish120141978
Caledonia119941994

American Woodcock Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.