BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

American White Pelican in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+66%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Great Basin is projected to rise about 552% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.43–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±218.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+552%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±218.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Great Basin is projected to rise about 552% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.43–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±218.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.90.377.4
20263.90.387.4
20273.90.407.5
20283.90.417.5
20294.00.437.5

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording American White Pelican in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner VallyOREGON1642021
Iron GateCALIFORNIA1132019
NixonNEVADA852023
PendletonOREGON522014
Hanford SiteWASHINGTON471996
BartleCALIFORNIA431984
HenryIDAHO401983
Malheur NwrOREGON382022
GoshenUTAH352024
DeltaUTAH302015
DorrisCALIFORNIA262019
Chimney Res.NEVADA252019
BridgeportCALIFORNIA241977
Bear RiverUTAH242023
LikelyCALIFORNIA182019
LeamingtonUTAH162017
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA132017
Modoc PointOREGON122018
UmatillaOREGON122023
MerrillOREGON122018
PrincetonOREGON111985
BrewsterWASHINGTON112009
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA102019
Blackft ResIDAHO102018
RirieIDAHO92005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.