BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

American White Pelican in Great Basin has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+78%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Great Basin: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American White Pelican In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Great Basin is projected to rise about 160% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.29–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+160%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±190.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Great Basin is projected to rise about 160% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.29–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.80.247.3
20273.80.257.3
20283.80.277.3
20293.80.287.3
20303.80.297.3

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording American White Pelican in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner VallyOREGON1642021
Iron GateCALIFORNIA1132019
Bear RiverUTAH702025
PendletonOREGON522014
IngallsCALIFORNIA502025
Hanford SiteWASHINGTON471996
BartleCALIFORNIA431984
HenryIDAHO401983
Malheur NwrOREGON382022
GoshenUTAH352024
DeltaUTAH302015
YakimaWASHINGTON292025
DorrisCALIFORNIA262019
Chimney Res.NEVADA252019
BridgeportCALIFORNIA241977
Ewan 2WASHINGTON192025
LikelyCALIFORNIA182019
LeamingtonUTAH162017
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA132017
Modoc PointOREGON122018
UmatillaOREGON122023
MerrillOREGON122018
PrincetonOREGON111985
BrewsterWASHINGTON112009
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA102019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.