BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

American White Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

-58%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

American White Pelican In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 118% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±652.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±652.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 118% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±652.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.001.5
20270.420.001.5
20280.410.001.5
20290.410.001.5
20300.400.001.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording American White Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KatyTEXAS101987
BaysideTEXAS102002
Bayside 2TEXAS92004
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS82019
Padre Island PaisTEXAS82015
Loyola BeachTEXAS72008
Bayside 3TEXAS42025
IndianolaTEXAS22004
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12005
Moon LakeTEXAS11995
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.