BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

American White Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

-43%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American White Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 148% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±651.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+148%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±651.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 148% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±651.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.001.6
20260.490.001.6
20270.480.001.6
20280.480.001.6
20290.470.001.6

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording American White Pelican in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KatyTEXAS101987
BaysideTEXAS102002
Bayside 2TEXAS92004
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS82019
Padre Island PaisTEXAS82015
Loyola BeachTEXAS72008
Bayside 3TEXAS42024
IndianolaTEXAS22004
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12005
Moon LakeTEXAS11995
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.