BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWetland birds

American White Pelican in Coastal California has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+76%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Coastal California: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

American White Pelican In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Coastal California is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Coastal California is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.850.002.5
20270.850.002.5
20280.860.002.5
20290.860.002.5
20300.860.002.5

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording American White Pelican in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HughsonCALIFORNIA422025
AtwaterCALIFORNIA382007
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA202022
RiovistaCALIFORNIA192025
WestleyCALIFORNIA152017
PenningtonCALIFORNIA132025
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA122022
ArvinCALIFORNIA82017
OnealsCALIFORNIA62016
Big BearCALIFORNIA21978
GlennCALIFORNIA22008
HollisterCALIFORNIA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.