BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWetland birds

American White Pelican in Coastal California has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+7%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American White Pelican in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Coastal California is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Coastal California is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.002.3
20260.690.002.3
20270.690.002.3
20280.690.002.3
20290.680.002.3

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording American White Pelican in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PenningtonCALIFORNIA502024
AtwaterCALIFORNIA382007
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA202022
RiovistaCALIFORNIA162015
WestleyCALIFORNIA152017
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA122022
ArvinCALIFORNIA82017
OnealsCALIFORNIA62016
HughsonCALIFORNIA22016
Big BearCALIFORNIA21978
GlennCALIFORNIA22008
HollisterCALIFORNIA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.