BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

American White Pelican in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 329% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+329%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 329% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 191% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.59–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+191%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 191% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.59–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.472.2
20261.40.502.2
20271.40.532.3
20281.40.562.3
20291.50.592.3

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American White Pelican in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Le CenterMINNESOTA1202023
HebronWISCONSIN422021
GrimmsWISCONSIN282018
AshbyMINNESOTA202019
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN192018
OsseoMINNESOTA152024
CascoWISCONSIN142024
GlenwoodMINNESOTA112019
Fall RiverWISCONSIN112023
New LondonMINNESOTA52024
Rolling PrWISCONSIN52024
Omro 2WISCONSIN52024
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA42024
Beaver DamWISCONSIN42023
EdwardsMINNESOTA32023
PrincetonMINNESOTA22024
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN22016
PardeevilleWISCONSIN22023
KnappMINNESOTA12024
St StephenMINNESOTA12008
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA12023
ManitowocWISCONSIN12019
HollandWISCONSIN12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.