BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

American White Pelican in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±214.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±214.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.7
20260.000.003.7
20270.000.003.7
20280.000.003.7
20290.000.003.7

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording American White Pelican in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WeinertTEXAS761989
Crescent LkNEBRASKA672017
AlbertKANSAS552023
JetOKLAHOMA491992
GordonNEBRASKA242010
MullenNEBRASKA142023
Swan LakeNEBRASKA102015
NenzelNEBRASKA72024
Piester LakeNEBRASKA52024
KennedyNEBRASKA22022
BrownleeNEBRASKA22024
StrattonNEBRASKA12003
SutherlandNEBRASKA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.