BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

American White Pelican in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-45%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American White Pelican in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±277%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±277%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±277%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.001.6
20260.430.001.6
20270.410.001.6
20280.390.001.6
20290.370.001.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American White Pelican in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kiowa 2COLORADO492024
Wildhorse LCOLORADO352024
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO122006
Arsenal 2COLORADO92018
JulesburgCOLORADO82017
Last ChanceCOLORADO72009
ArsenalCOLORADO72014
YoderWYOMING72024
StonehamCOLORADO62003
HaswellCOLORADO62024
Fort MorganCOLORADO62019
PaxtonNEBRASKA61995
BriggsdaleCOLORADO52024
Prospect ValCOLORADO41999
NeegrandeCOLORADO32017
GroverCOLORADO22019
NunnCOLORADO22018
KiowaCOLORADO12012
HudsonCOLORADO12024
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO12018
CheyenneWYOMING12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.