BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

American White Pelican in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-31%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American White Pelican in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

American White Pelican In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±256.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±256.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±256.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.001.6
20270.410.001.6
20280.390.001.5
20290.370.001.5
20300.350.001.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American White Pelican in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kiowa 2COLORADO492024
Fort MorganCOLORADO162025
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO122006
JulesburgCOLORADO82017
Last ChanceCOLORADO72009
HudsonCOLORADO72025
ArsenalCOLORADO72014
YoderWYOMING72024
StonehamCOLORADO62003
HaswellCOLORADO62024
NunnCOLORADO62025
PaxtonNEBRASKA61995
BriggsdaleCOLORADO52024
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52025
Prospect ValCOLORADO41999
NeegrandeCOLORADO32017
GroverCOLORADO22019
KiowaCOLORADO12012
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO12018
Arsenal 2COLORADO12025
CheyenneWYOMING12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.